- Bitcoin’s protection of the 100-day shifting common and a bullish divergence of an hourly chart indicator recommend scope for a minor worth bounce to $10,300
- Bitcoin will stay within the hunt for a drop to $9,467 (Aug. 13 low), so long as the rising wedge breakdown seen on the 4-hour chart stays legitimate.
- A UTC shut above $10,956 would shift danger in favor of a rally to $11,850-$12,000. A weekly shut above $12,000 is required to verify bullish revival.
Bitcoin (BTC) sellers are once more struggling to drive a sustained break beneath a widely-followed assist degree, however the outlook would flip bullish solely above $10,956.
The premier cryptocurrency by market worth fell by $600 within the Asian buying and selling hours on Wednesday, confirming a rising wedge breakdown on the intraday charts.
The bearish reversal sample opened the doorways for a retest of the Aug. 15 low of $9,467, as mentioned yesterday. Up to now, nonetheless, that focus on has remained elusive and the dips beneath the 100-day shifting common (MA), at the moment at $9,900, have been short-lived.
It’s value noting that the long-term MA labored as sturdy assist earlier this month. The cryptocurrency bumped into bids beneath the 100-day MA on Aug. 15 and closed (UTC) that day with positive aspects above $10,300. The common was once more defended on the next day and the next worth bounce ended up hitting highs above $10,950 on Aug. 20.
So, if the 100-day MA continues to carry floor over the subsequent few hours, chart-driven shopping for may result in a worth bounce.
As of writing, BTC is altering arms at $9,970 on Bitstamp, representing a 1.7-percent loss on the day.
Every day and hourly charts
The decrease wick connected to immediately’s candle (above left) represents a failure on the a part of the bears to maintain the cryptocurrency beneath the 100-day MA. The common additionally proved a troublesome nut to crack on Wednesday.
The repeated protection of the important thing MA, coupled with the bullish divergence (greater lows) of the hourly chart relative energy index (above proper) signifies scope for an increase to $10,300 over the subsequent few hours.
The trail of least resistance, nonetheless, will stay to the draw back so long as costs are held beneath $10,956 – the bearish decrease excessive created on Aug. 20.
The bulls will doubtless have a troublesome time forcing a break above $10,956, because the every day chart indicators are biased bearish. For example, the RSI is holding beneath 50 and the shifting common convergence divergence (MACD) histogram is printing destructive values.
Additional, the 5- and 10-week shifting averages have produced a bearish crossover, as mentioned earlier this week.
The truth that final week’s bounce from the 100-day MA ended up charting a bearish decrease excessive signifies a weakening of bullish sentiment.
The case for a drop to the Aug. 15 low of $9,467 put ahead by the rising wedge breakdown will stay legitimate so long as costs stay beneath $10,807 – the excessive of the candle confirming the breakdown.
Every day line chart
The road chart of every day closing costs helps traders look by means of the noise created by every day highs and lows.
If costs shut above $10,000 immediately and find yourself rising above $10,927 (Aug. 16 shut) within the subsequent day or two, then a double-bottom bullish breakout can be confirmed. That might open the doorways to $11,850.
BTC has failed at the very least 4 occasions within the final eight weeks to shut (Sunday, UTC) above $12,000. So, a weekly shut above that degree is required to verify a whole bullish revival.
Disclosure: The creator holds no cryptocurrency belongings on the time of writing.